Currently, snow is falling across western Tennessee. Temps are holding in the low 40’s as expected. Rain has occurred off and on today and temps have remained fairly steady. The cold air is not far off and eventually will advect into the region. Rain will continue overnight and eventually change over to snow as temps fall. It appears that there will be a brief window of opportunity for snowfall; however, I am not very convinced that significant accumulations will occur as temps hang right around freezing.
Given that some precip may be moderate at times, I’m going to continue to say 1-3”. I’m thinking that we may stay on the low end of that range for most valley locations; however, some locations on the plateau may experience higher numbers since temps will (of course) be lower and the changeover will happen sooner in those locations.
Still an entity that is uncertain… dynamic cooling. I’ve mentioned it before in previous forecasts and will mention it here also. Both NAM and GFS are in agreement that the UL low will move overhead Wednesday morning. Because lapse rates are expected to steepen with the passage of the UL low… it would not be out of the question to see convective snow bursts from time to time. If the right conditions set up… all locations may experience a slightly higher snowfall accumulation than what the forecast above indicates. Because of this, I went ahead and mentioned locally higher amounts to account for this uncertainty. Most precip should get out of here by midday Wednesday; however, a stray flurry or snow shower can’t be ruled out thereafter.
Tuesday Evening/Wednesday forecast:
Rain will change to snow late. Snow will continue through midday Wednesday. Snowfall accumulation of 1-3” is possible across most of the valley; however, some higher amounts are possible especially in the highest elevations. Travel conditions may become hazardous in mountainous areas as well as a few valley locations where temperatures fall below freezing.
Meteorologist: Robert Frye
Updated: 1/25/2011 at 9:00 PM CST