A few widely scattered showers will develop out ahead of the main precipitation shield; however, the heaviest weather is not due in until around 6am or perhaps slightly later. The low level winds are fairly ROBUST with H85 winds of 60-70kts forecast. Since the strong winds will not have far to go to reach the surface, it will not take much convection for them to reach the surface and possibly cause issues.

The 0-1km helicity forecasts are a bit worrisome with 350-400m2/s2 right over us as the line of storms move closer toward the area. One limiting factor is the time of day and lack of instability. SBCAPE values of 250j/kg are not out of the question; however, with such a volatile wind profile I would tend to think weaker updrafts (updrafts that will be fed on upper level ascent) would easily get rolled and eventually destroyed.

This event is very classic in terms of cool season severe with low instability and high shear. The best chance for tornadoes in general appears to be west of here where instability values are higher; however, given strong shear and strong forcing I can’t rule out a spin up here or there. EHI (0-1km) values of around 1 or slightly higher are forecast for this time period. This value is relatively low considering higher end events; however, given the time of year it is still rather impressive. Again, for that reason I simply can’t rule out a possible spin up.

With that said, I do not expect a widespread tornado outbreak by any means. I am very concerned about the possibility of strong damaging winds that will accompany the line of storms as it moves eastward. Even heavier shower activity may be enough to pull some of the wind energy down to the surface. Due to the lack of instability and fairly low topped convection, lightning may be limited with these cells as well.

Again, timing looks to be between 6am and 10am given model disagreement. Often times squall lines tend to surge forward a bit faster than forecast so that is why I’m thinking 6am at the earliest and 10am given the slower guidance. The morning rush looks very wet and windy. Be sure to keep both hands on the wheel as you drive and use extra caution if you drive a high profile vehicle.

Summary:

-Severe storms are possible
-Strong possibly damaging winds are the primary threat
-Can’t rule out an isolated tornado; however, no widespread tornado outbreak is expected
-Limited lightning
-Brief heavy rainfall

Residents are urged to be ready to act and know what to do if a watch or warning is issued for the area. Stay safe and stay informed.

Meteorologist: Robert Frye
Updated: 7:00pm CST 1/29/13

“Coffee with the Congressman” is scheduled for Wednesday, January 30th, 2013 at the Dutch Maid Bakery at 29 Courthouse Square in Jasper. The event will begin at 10:00am CST.

The congressman says the event will be a chance for constituents to join him for a conversation about how he intends to serve the District in the upcoming session of Congress.

The event is a casual attire.

For more information or to RSVP, contact Isiah Robinson.

The reason we’re not as immune as many think is due to the Gulf of Mexico being our primary source for warm air and moisture. In the cooler season, a southerly wind from that direction usually brings us warmer and more humid conditions. The same can be said for the summer. Ever wonder why the Sequatchie Valley is so humid during the summer? Well, if the Gulf of Mexico wasn’t there it would be significantly drier and not nearly as rainy. This warm rich air that moves into the region from the gulf is one ingredient that can bring us severe weather.

In all seasons except summer and early autumn, we usually get frontal boundaries from the northwest that cool us down and dry our air. Out ahead of the cold front, winds turn out of the south and spread the warmer more humid air from the gulf northward. The interaction between the warm moist air and cooler dry air causes widespread showers and storms, especially along or slightly ahead of the cold frontal boundary.

With that said, we are NOT immune to tornadoes during the late summer months and early autumn months. Land-falling tropical storms and hurricanes can move into the region and bring flooding rains, gusty winds, and even isolated weak tornadoes. For this reason, it is important to be aware of the weather and be ready to act when watches and warnings are issued for your area.

There are many ways to keep updated on current watches and warnings. You may purchase a weather radio with S.A.M.E. technology at many retail outlets that sell electronics. These radios can be found at the RadioShack in Kimball Crossing as well as Walmart, and were also available at CVS in Jasper in the past.

For those that use smartphones, there are several cheap and even free apps that can be bought to alert you to any threats. One app, offered for FREE is the ReadyTN Mobile Preparedness App from the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency. You can learn more about the ReadyTN app here.  Also, many cell phone service providers offer free text messages of alerts using the phone GPS. Check with your cell phone service provider to determine whether or not your device is capable, and whether or not they offer these messages.

For those still “wired” with a landline phone, the county’s Reverse 911 system can also be activated to alert residents. This system is already setup for area land line phones, however citizens can add cell phone numbers and their email, if they wish, by visiting www.marioncosheriff.com and click the “Sign Up for FREE Emergency Alerts”  button on the right side of the page and following the prompts to register a new user. The user will receive an email notifying them that their information has been received and they are active on the system. Local emergency management officials urge those with elderly family members in the area with cell phones to help register those family members.

Marion County Sheriff Ronnie “Bo” Burnett advises residents,  ”If there are elderly residents that need help registering their cell phone, they can call the sheriff’s office (423-942-2525) and we’ll make sure we get them into the system.”

Stay with MarionCountyMessenger.com online, on Facebook, and follow us on Twitter for the very latest weather information.

“Coffee with the Congressman” is scheduled for Wednesday, January 30th, 2013 at the Dutch Maid Bakery at 29 Courthouse Square in Jasper. The event will begin at 10:00am CST.

The congressman says the event will be a chance for constituents to join him for a conversation about how he intends to serve the District in the upcoming session of Congress.

The event is a casual attire.

For more information or to RSVP, contact Isiah Robinson.

**EDITED FOR CORRECTION OF EVENT DAY, 1/29/13 at 8:47am CST**

Ricky Ross

SOUTH PITTSBURG, Tenn. — It’s a question that’s been on the minds of many Pirate faithful over the past month, “Who will be the new head football coach at South Pittsburg?”

Well, that answer was finally given today bringing an end to much debate over the matter in the Sequatchie Valley. Former Calhoun Yellow Jackets  defensive coordinator, Ricky Ross, has been named the new head football coach for the local powerhouse team.

Ross, 38, will take over the position vacated by Vic Grider who stepped-down from the head coaching position on December 16th, 2012, after spending 16 seasons in the coach’s position at his alma mater. Grider led the Pirates to an average of 11 wins per season during his time as the Pirate’s head coach, as well as three Class 1A state championship wins in addition to two more trips to state where the team didn’t win.

Grider is currently serving as the school’s athletic director as well as interim principal.  He along with a committee of five others selected Ross out of 140 other applicants who wanted the job.  The committee trimmed that list to three finalists before selecting Ross.

In an interview with the Stephen Hargis of  the Chattanooga Times Free Press (bit.ly/SPFB12213), Grider said they were all highly impressed by his first interview.

“Everything he said was exactly what we wanted to hear in terms of his plans for the future of the program. Once we finished all the interviews, it just became obvious that Ricky was our guy. If there’s a coaching lottery, we feel like we hit the jackpot with him.

“His football knowledge is off the charts, but most importantly he’s a top-notch person. His energy level will make the kids attach themselves to him and he’ll fit in right away in the community.”

Ross helped the Calhoun win eight straight region titles since being promoted to defensive coordinator.  The Yellow Jackets reached Georgia’s Class AA state title game each of the past five seasons, including taking that title in 2011 with an upset of nationally-ranked Buford.  During a 29-game winning streak over the 2011-2012 season, Calhoun’s defense allowed just five opponents to score more than 14 points.

With the announcement of Ross coming to South Pittsburg, he now makes only the fourth head coach for the Pirates football program over the past 50 years.  Vic Grider’s father, the late Don Grider, won 192 games and a state title from 1969 to 1992. Danny Wilson took over the program from 1993 to 1996, winning a state title with Vic Grider as his defensive coordinator.

In addition to 68 playoff wins, the Pirates have won 5 state championships and appeared in 11 title games, making them have the highest number of title wins and appearances than any other program in the area.  After winning the state title in 1969, South Pittsburg is also the only school in the state to have played for a championship in all six decades since the TSSAA began its’ playoff format.

Prior to his time at Calhoun, Ross played linebacker at Cumberland University, and after graduation was the defensive coordinator at Landmark Christian and Adairsville.  His wife, Sandy, is a 1990 graduate of Marion County High School in Jasper, who lettered in three sports there.  The two plan on putting roots down in the community and being very local-oriented.

Ross told the Times Free Press,  “There are very few places I would’ve left Calhoun for, but this was just one of those places that has everything you want as a coach. They’re rich in tradition, football matters to the kids and the community and I like that. I’m honored to be in this position and I want to continue the tradition they already have and build on it.

“We will play hard, with a lot of effort and energy and be fundamentally sound and I want to inspire the kids to be great citizens and daddies after they’re done playing.”

Information from: Chattanooga Times Free Press

Mike Killian

SOUTH PITTSBURG, Tenn. – A South Pittsburg convenience and lottery store owned by the town’s former mayor was raided by the FBI on Tuesday after an anonymous tip was made that illegal gambling machines were in use at the location. That tip paid off and FBI agents spent several hours removing the gambling equipment over the course of the day, according to witnesses.

According to property records, former mayor James Michael “Mike” Killian who decided not to seek re-election in November 2012 owns the “Lotto Mart,” at 519 E. 12th Street in South Pittsburg. He had served as mayor since 2004.

Killian could not be reached for comment and the Lotto Mart’s manager declined to comment. Attempts to contact Killian at his other business were also unsuccessful.

His brother is Bill Killian, who has served as U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Tennessee since 2010. A message left at his office was not immediately returned either.

According to FBI spokesman Marshall Stone, the Lotto Mart was one of three local businesses that FBI raided on Tuesday. Other stores include the Little Store on Valley View Highway in Sequatchie and Richard City Market on 19th St., in Richard City.

Stone told the Chattanooga Times Free Press (http://bit.ly/10ew4lz) that agents were at the Lotto Mart for “probably a couple of hours,” but wouldn’t say what kind of evidence was seized or give any details about the investigation.

Eyewitnesses say agents loaded video machines into a yellow moving truck at the Lotto Mart and then removed them from the premises.

Stone said the agents were “following up on a criminal investigation going on for some time.” He said no arrests were made and no other details would be released “until court documents are unsealed later.”

He said he didn’t know when that would be, and the clerk for U.S. District Court in Chattanooga said no documents had been returned as of Wednesday afternoon.

Information from: Chattanooga Times Free Press

A low pressure system will develop later tonight or early Thursday along the same frontal boundary that has brought flooding rains to the area for the past several days. That front will be nudged eastward as an upper level “trof” progrades. A strong shortwave embedded in the flow will rotating into MS/AL tomorrow morning/afternoon and take on a negative tilt and finally closes off.

Forecast radar simulations from NAM/RAP indicate a heavy band of snow as far south of southern Mississippi developing tomorrow morning on the backside of the low. This band will quickly slide eastward with time and impact locations further south into Alabama. However, this will need to be watched as our area in located in the synoptically favored regions for snow.

The only issue for you snow lovers will be temperatures (thermal profile). As the closed low passes to the south, dynamic cooling will be maximized over those locations. A combination of cold air advection and minimal dynamic cooling may help change us over around lunch time; however, I do expect a window of rain and snow mix as thermals will gradually cool.

One concern I have right now is precipitation intensity. If a pocket of higher precip rates occur, dynamic cooling will increase changing us over to all snow and those heavy precip rates will mean more snow. At this time it looks like the heaviest precipitation will remain south with the upper level low. Precipitation will come to an end around 6pm Thursday.

Given relatively warm ground temperatures it will take a high density snow to accumulate. I’m not expecting major travel problem initially; however, as temperatures cool overnight I do expect black ice to form on most roadways so use caution driving overnight and early Friday. **It should be noted that there still remain a bit of uncertainty given uncertainty relating to temperatures. We’ll have a late night here in the weather office to analyze new information that comes in around midnight.

Forecast for Marion County:

Thursday: Rainy and cool. Rain will mix with and change over to all snow by afternoon. Snow accumulations will range from a dusting to maybe up to an inch with slightly more possible in the higher elevations. High temperatures will be around 38 early and dropping through the day.

Thursday Night: Precipitation ending during the evening with decreasing clouds. Low temperatures will be around 28. Watch for black ice that may form if you plan to drive.

Friday: Becoming Mostly Sunny with highs in the mid 40’s. Again, there will be a threat for black ice early Friday.

Updated: 5:38 CST on Jan 16, 2013
Staff Meteorologist: Robert Frye

Robert Frye is a Jasper, TN native and Marion County High School graduate. Robert holds a degree in Meteorology from the University of South Alabama in Mobile and is currently a graduate student in Applied Meteorology at Mississippi State University. Frye works for a NOAA contractor as an ice/snow analyst in Washington, D.C., and is Chief Staff Meteorologist for MarionCountyMessenger.com — the only daily local news and information website in the the Tri-State area to employee an actual qualified meteorologist for exclusive weather forecasting and analysis.

MarionCountyMessenger.com Staff Meteorologist Robert Frye says, “the Sequatchie River near Whitwell is now above flood stage and a flood warning is currently in effect for both Marion County and the Sequatchie River.”

“At 14-ft. flooding begins to affect adjacent farmlands around the river and the forecast crest of 16-ft., expected late Wednesday or early Thursday, will cause extensive flooding of farmlands adjacent to the river including local roadways such as Ketner’s Mill Lane and others located near the river and its’ tributaries,” said Frye.

NWS Hydrological Forecast for Sequatchie River

Authorities with the Marion County Sheriff’s Department and the Tennessee Department of Transportation (TDOT) remind motorists to to never drive through flood waters that cover the roadway.  They also want to remind motorist to stay alert of flood warnings and watches for their area or in locations in which they plan to travel. If you do happen across a flooded roadway, remember, turn around!  Don’t drown!

With the excessive rainfall and related travel hazards, officials with Marion County Schools decided to cancel classes for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Many of the roads affected by flooding are not safely navigated by school buses or other automobiles in these conditions, and officials with the school system say they take the safety of their students, faculty, and staff seriously, thus prompting the system’s closing due to flooding.

Marion schools weren’t the only ones affected by the rains, Hamilton County, TN Schools as well as many systems in North Georgia have a delayed start time for classes on Wednesday.  If flooding continues along Chickamauga Creek in Chattanooga and parts of Catoosa and Walker counties in Georgia, schools may opt for closure there as well, however no official closings for those systems have been made at this time.

Stay with MarionCountyMessenger.com via our website, Facebook page, and Twitter for the latest local news, weather from our own trusted meteorologist, Robert Frye, and other local information around the clock.

Mayor Dawkins (Contributed Photo)

SOUTH PITTSBURG, Tenn. — Peddlers picked the wrong house to pitch their services in South Pittsburg. It was that of Mayor Jane Dawkins, who said the people in the unmarked van were “very persistent” about wanting to come inside and demonstrate cleaning supplies.

Dawkins told the Chattanooga Times Free Press (http://bit.ly/W3jBeG ) she turned them away and then followed them in her car, watching them stop at other homes. She called police, who found they had no city peddler’s license and told them to leave.

A short time later, another unmarked van was spotted. Its occupants were hawking home security systems. The alarm system company was contacted and knew nothing about them.

Dawkins was inwith replies when she put out a Facebook warning about the peddlers.

Both groups were cited for violating a city ordinance.

Information from: Chattanooga Times Free Press