A few widely scattered showers will develop out ahead of the main precipitation shield; however, the heaviest weather is not due in until around 6am or perhaps slightly later. The low level winds are fairly ROBUST with H85 winds of 60-70kts forecast. Since the strong winds will not have far to go to reach the surface, it will not take much convection for them to reach the surface and possibly cause issues.

The 0-1km helicity forecasts are a bit worrisome with 350-400m2/s2 right over us as the line of storms move closer toward the area. One limiting factor is the time of day and lack of instability. SBCAPE values of 250j/kg are not out of the question; however, with such a volatile wind profile I would tend to think weaker updrafts (updrafts that will be fed on upper level ascent) would easily get rolled and eventually destroyed.

This event is very classic in terms of cool season severe with low instability and high shear. The best chance for tornadoes in general appears to be west of here where instability values are higher; however, given strong shear and strong forcing I can’t rule out a spin up here or there. EHI (0-1km) values of around 1 or slightly higher are forecast for this time period. This value is relatively low considering higher end events; however, given the time of year it is still rather impressive. Again, for that reason I simply can’t rule out a possible spin up.

With that said, I do not expect a widespread tornado outbreak by any means. I am very concerned about the possibility of strong damaging winds that will accompany the line of storms as it moves eastward. Even heavier shower activity may be enough to pull some of the wind energy down to the surface. Due to the lack of instability and fairly low topped convection, lightning may be limited with these cells as well.

Again, timing looks to be between 6am and 10am given model disagreement. Often times squall lines tend to surge forward a bit faster than forecast so that is why I’m thinking 6am at the earliest and 10am given the slower guidance. The morning rush looks very wet and windy. Be sure to keep both hands on the wheel as you drive and use extra caution if you drive a high profile vehicle.

Summary:

-Severe storms are possible
-Strong possibly damaging winds are the primary threat
-Can’t rule out an isolated tornado; however, no widespread tornado outbreak is expected
-Limited lightning
-Brief heavy rainfall

Residents are urged to be ready to act and know what to do if a watch or warning is issued for the area. Stay safe and stay informed.

Meteorologist: Robert Frye
Updated: 7:00pm CST 1/29/13

The reason we’re not as immune as many think is due to the Gulf of Mexico being our primary source for warm air and moisture. In the cooler season, a southerly wind from that direction usually brings us warmer and more humid conditions. The same can be said for the summer. Ever wonder why the Sequatchie Valley is so humid during the summer? Well, if the Gulf of Mexico wasn’t there it would be significantly drier and not nearly as rainy. This warm rich air that moves into the region from the gulf is one ingredient that can bring us severe weather.

In all seasons except summer and early autumn, we usually get frontal boundaries from the northwest that cool us down and dry our air. Out ahead of the cold front, winds turn out of the south and spread the warmer more humid air from the gulf northward. The interaction between the warm moist air and cooler dry air causes widespread showers and storms, especially along or slightly ahead of the cold frontal boundary.

With that said, we are NOT immune to tornadoes during the late summer months and early autumn months. Land-falling tropical storms and hurricanes can move into the region and bring flooding rains, gusty winds, and even isolated weak tornadoes. For this reason, it is important to be aware of the weather and be ready to act when watches and warnings are issued for your area.

There are many ways to keep updated on current watches and warnings. You may purchase a weather radio with S.A.M.E. technology at many retail outlets that sell electronics. These radios can be found at the RadioShack in Kimball Crossing as well as Walmart, and were also available at CVS in Jasper in the past.

For those that use smartphones, there are several cheap and even free apps that can be bought to alert you to any threats. One app, offered for FREE is the ReadyTN Mobile Preparedness App from the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency. You can learn more about the ReadyTN app here.  Also, many cell phone service providers offer free text messages of alerts using the phone GPS. Check with your cell phone service provider to determine whether or not your device is capable, and whether or not they offer these messages.

For those still “wired” with a landline phone, the county’s Reverse 911 system can also be activated to alert residents. This system is already setup for area land line phones, however citizens can add cell phone numbers and their email, if they wish, by visiting www.marioncosheriff.com and click the “Sign Up for FREE Emergency Alerts”  button on the right side of the page and following the prompts to register a new user. The user will receive an email notifying them that their information has been received and they are active on the system. Local emergency management officials urge those with elderly family members in the area with cell phones to help register those family members.

Marion County Sheriff Ronnie “Bo” Burnett advises residents,  ”If there are elderly residents that need help registering their cell phone, they can call the sheriff’s office (423-942-2525) and we’ll make sure we get them into the system.”

Stay with MarionCountyMessenger.com online, on Facebook, and follow us on Twitter for the very latest weather information.

A low pressure system will develop later tonight or early Thursday along the same frontal boundary that has brought flooding rains to the area for the past several days. That front will be nudged eastward as an upper level “trof” progrades. A strong shortwave embedded in the flow will rotating into MS/AL tomorrow morning/afternoon and take on a negative tilt and finally closes off.

Forecast radar simulations from NAM/RAP indicate a heavy band of snow as far south of southern Mississippi developing tomorrow morning on the backside of the low. This band will quickly slide eastward with time and impact locations further south into Alabama. However, this will need to be watched as our area in located in the synoptically favored regions for snow.

The only issue for you snow lovers will be temperatures (thermal profile). As the closed low passes to the south, dynamic cooling will be maximized over those locations. A combination of cold air advection and minimal dynamic cooling may help change us over around lunch time; however, I do expect a window of rain and snow mix as thermals will gradually cool.

One concern I have right now is precipitation intensity. If a pocket of higher precip rates occur, dynamic cooling will increase changing us over to all snow and those heavy precip rates will mean more snow. At this time it looks like the heaviest precipitation will remain south with the upper level low. Precipitation will come to an end around 6pm Thursday.

Given relatively warm ground temperatures it will take a high density snow to accumulate. I’m not expecting major travel problem initially; however, as temperatures cool overnight I do expect black ice to form on most roadways so use caution driving overnight and early Friday. **It should be noted that there still remain a bit of uncertainty given uncertainty relating to temperatures. We’ll have a late night here in the weather office to analyze new information that comes in around midnight.

Forecast for Marion County:

Thursday: Rainy and cool. Rain will mix with and change over to all snow by afternoon. Snow accumulations will range from a dusting to maybe up to an inch with slightly more possible in the higher elevations. High temperatures will be around 38 early and dropping through the day.

Thursday Night: Precipitation ending during the evening with decreasing clouds. Low temperatures will be around 28. Watch for black ice that may form if you plan to drive.

Friday: Becoming Mostly Sunny with highs in the mid 40’s. Again, there will be a threat for black ice early Friday.

Updated: 5:38 CST on Jan 16, 2013
Staff Meteorologist: Robert Frye

Robert Frye is a Jasper, TN native and Marion County High School graduate. Robert holds a degree in Meteorology from the University of South Alabama in Mobile and is currently a graduate student in Applied Meteorology at Mississippi State University. Frye works for a NOAA contractor as an ice/snow analyst in Washington, D.C., and is Chief Staff Meteorologist for MarionCountyMessenger.com — the only daily local news and information website in the the Tri-State area to employee an actual qualified meteorologist for exclusive weather forecasting and analysis.

MarionCountyMessenger.com Staff Meteorologist Robert Frye says, “the Sequatchie River near Whitwell is now above flood stage and a flood warning is currently in effect for both Marion County and the Sequatchie River.”

“At 14-ft. flooding begins to affect adjacent farmlands around the river and the forecast crest of 16-ft., expected late Wednesday or early Thursday, will cause extensive flooding of farmlands adjacent to the river including local roadways such as Ketner’s Mill Lane and others located near the river and its’ tributaries,” said Frye.

NWS Hydrological Forecast for Sequatchie River

Authorities with the Marion County Sheriff’s Department and the Tennessee Department of Transportation (TDOT) remind motorists to to never drive through flood waters that cover the roadway.  They also want to remind motorist to stay alert of flood warnings and watches for their area or in locations in which they plan to travel. If you do happen across a flooded roadway, remember, turn around!  Don’t drown!

With the excessive rainfall and related travel hazards, officials with Marion County Schools decided to cancel classes for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Many of the roads affected by flooding are not safely navigated by school buses or other automobiles in these conditions, and officials with the school system say they take the safety of their students, faculty, and staff seriously, thus prompting the system’s closing due to flooding.

Marion schools weren’t the only ones affected by the rains, Hamilton County, TN Schools as well as many systems in North Georgia have a delayed start time for classes on Wednesday.  If flooding continues along Chickamauga Creek in Chattanooga and parts of Catoosa and Walker counties in Georgia, schools may opt for closure there as well, however no official closings for those systems have been made at this time.

Stay with MarionCountyMessenger.com via our website, Facebook page, and Twitter for the latest local news, weather from our own trusted meteorologist, Robert Frye, and other local information around the clock.

Photo Courtesy Sherry Spangler Photography

Marion County is a close-knit community with a heart as big as the valley is wide and as gold as it they come.  And if you need proof of that statement, the turnout to the last night’s “Marion County Unites for Kennedy” event at the Jasper fairgrounds should be proof enough!

The event started as an idea on a local Facebook buy-sell-trade group, spearheaded by local resident Amanda Carter, and grew to an event that reached even beyond the realms of the Facebook community. Thousands of people as well as local TV station WRCB, and radio stations US-101 and Hit 96 showed up at last night’s event to show their love and support of 15-year old Kennedy Griffith.

Kennedy, the 15-year old daughter of  Marion County School Superintendent Mark Griffith, has been battling cancer for the past three years.  She has recently been undergoing treatments at M.D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston, Texas, where it was recently learned that doctors have run out of effective treatment options. However, “The Warrior,” (as so many call her) has kept the positive, strong, and brave attitude that so many have come to know of Kennedy.

The idea behind last night’s event was to assemble as many people possible at the fairgrounds in an arrangement that spelled out a message of well wishes for the girl, which would be visible from a fly over for an aerial photograph for her.

Local photographer, Sherry Spangler, took to the air with pilot Ed Seay and the photo was a success!

Kennedy and her parents Mark and Pam are scheduled to return home from Texas next Friday and close friends of the family say she’ll be traveling in style, riding home in a limousine.

For more on Kennedy’s story, click here to read her CaringBridge journal.

Organizers and volunteers wish to thank all who was able to participate and show their support at the event.

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By: Logan Carmichael, Publisher/Writer

Last week, the Kimball Board of Mayor and Aldermen voted unanimously to put out bids for a new tractor after the city’s current one broke down on several consecutive days.

Kimball Mayor, David Jackson,  said a tractor is essential to the maintenance department.

The Mayor said they were really hoping to wait until the end of this year or the first of next year before making the purchase, however the current tractor is around 15 years old.

Officials with said maintenance supervisor Mike Nelson will draw up the specifications for the bids so the town will get exactly what it needs, including the brand.

Nelson said an enclosed cab, which would have heat and air conditioning, was not included in the initial price estimate because that could raise the price much higher than the budgeted amount.

Just a basic enclosed cab with no heat or air could raise the price by as much as $12,000.

City officials say they will probably purchase a separate plastic attachment to enclose the cab in order to save money.

Bids for supplying the tractor must be received by 4 p.m. CDT on Sept. 6th.

Information from: Chattanooga Times Free Press

Graham wins with 60% of the votes.

His challenger, current County Commission vice chairman and District 4 representative, Mack Reeves, only claimed 40% of the vote.

Graham was appointed to replace the County Mayor David Kirk in December 2010 after his unexpected passing. Graham was serving his 15th year as road superintendent when he was appointed to fill Kirk’s seat until the next county general election.

Graham will now face Republican candidate Gary Ellis in August in order to serve out the remaining two years of the term.

The tax, proposed by the County Commission, would impose a $25 tax on motorcycles and a $50 tax on automobiles registered within the county borders to help reduce the recently increased property tax.

Officials said 40 percent of county residents own property, but more than 80 percent own a vehicle.

However many residents (and at least two commissioners) felt like the wheel tax would only spread the tax burden even further for Marion County residents.

When originally presented to commissioners for vote, Commissioner Louin Campbell voted no, saying he thinks “people have a big enough burden on them right now without adding another tax to it.”

“You’re not adding another tax if you’re going to take off of the property tax,” Commissioner Donald Blansett said. “The property tax is already in. We’re not adding anymore burden.”

Campbell said that simply wasn’t true.

“I’ll be paying more on wheel tax now on top of the new property tax,” he said. “I think it’s time to start looking out for the poor people in the county instead of the people that have everything.”

Commissioner Wayne Willis said the wheel tax will spread the tax burden across a larger group since citing the same reasons as Campbell mentioned regarding property owners versus car owners.

Campbell said anyone who is renting property is still paying property taxes.

“[The landlord] is including his property tax in that rent,” he said. “You can bet your bottom dollar on that. They’re charging those poor people who can’t afford it more to rent. Those people are paying their taxes and [the landlord's] too.”

However the commission’s plan to approve a wheel tax hit a brief snag along the way when officials found that endorsing it might force the county to hold a costly special election.

That was avoided when commissioners voted to put the question on the March ballot, using the same language commissioners had considered. It includes a promise to reduce property tax rates by the amount the tax generates.

Commissioner Gene Hargis made the motion, saying he didn’t want to take chances that could cost the county more money. The motion passed 13-2.

After Tuesday’s election, the proposed wheel tax was a “no-go” by the voters’ hand, with 72.6% of voters opposing the tax.

Information from: TimesFreePress.com

At stake are 419 delegates for the GOP candidates.

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney holds the delegate lead with 119, but any candidate hoping to clench the nomination needs 1,143 delegates.

In Tennessee the polls close at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time, while in Georgia, the polls close at 7:00 p.m.

Early voting numbers for this year were down sharply from the last presidential primary in 2008, causing the major GOP candidates to ramped up their attention to Tennessee over the last week with campaign stops and a barrage of ads on local television and cable.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has drawn the endorsement of several top Republicans in the state, including Gov. Bill Haslam and U.S. Sen. Lamar Alexander.

Meanwhile, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich made a series of appearances between Kingsport and Memphis in the days before the vote.

Tennessee has 55 delegates up for the vote, the third most among the 10 Super Tuesday states.

At a Santorum rally near Knoxville last week, Anderson County teacher Parker Stanley said the former senator carries the least political and personal baggage among the candidates.

“They’re trying to say he’s a rightist Christian,” he said. “And I don’t think that will be as damaging as what they can say against Romney, or about Gingrich.”

Voters at a Haslam-led rally for Romney in Memphis last week said they like Romney’s past business experience will help lead the country out of sluggish economic times.

Haslam acknowledged Santorum’s charisma and ability to connect with voters after that rally.

Other states holding Super Tuesday contests are Alaska, Idaho, Ohio, Oklahoma, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Vermont and Virginia.

Election ballots across rural Southeast Tennessee have a mix of contested local races and questions as voters head to polls, while locally several seats are up for grabs with the biggest of those races being the seat of Marion County Mayor, where voters will pick from two candidates in Democratic primary races.

John Graham, appointed to replace the late County Mayor David Kirk, faces challenger Mack Reeves in the Democratic primary for a spot on the August general election ballot.

Graham was serving his 15th year as road superintendent when he was appointed in December 2010 to fill Kirk’s seat until the next county general election.

Reeves is the County Commission vice chairman and represents District 4.

The winner will face Republican candidate Gary Ellis to serve out the remaining two years of the term.

For Marion County Assessor of Property, the race is between Democrats Judy Brewer (incumbent) and Rick Carter. There are no Republican candidates for the seat.

Marion County voters will also have the opportunity to give a thumbs up or down on a wheel tax that would place a $25 tax on motorcycles and a $50 tax on automobiles.

For Constable (Dist. 1) Democrats Tim Reynolds and incumbent Harvey Allison. And for Constable (Dist. 2) the race is between Democrats Travis Hickman and Jeff Stephens.

Stay with MarionCountyMessenger.com online, on Facebook, and follow us on Twitter for the latest information as it becomes available.  You can also see the results as they become available on our main page by watching our Twitter feed for live tweeting of information on our website.

Information from: Associated Press